Emerging Russian Perspectives on the Military Uses of AI in Warfare
by Timothy Thomas and Glen Howard
“Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia but for all humankind. It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world,”
Russian President Vladimir Putin, September 1, 2017
Russia and the World of AI
Recent revelations of a new Chinese AI model known as DeepSeek have renewed interest in the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in national security as the war in Ukraine elevates the importance of AI use in both kinetic and non-kinetic military operations, creating what stands to be revolutionary changes in warfare. Due to the bulk of media attention on the Chinese use of AI often overlooked is how Russia views the military security importance of AI and how it might be used in future warfare.
Any cursory review of Russian writings on the use of Artificial Intelligence in warfare indicates that by 2040, AI will become an important arm of warfare and complement decision-making by becoming a useful tool in a wide range of areas. Russia’s war in Ukraine has sparked a deeper need to examine how the Kremlin views the use of AI through its military writings and how it will affect future conflicts.
Russian President Putin grasped the importance of AI as far back as September 1, 2017, underscoring the fact in a speech to Russian children on Knowledge Day in Russia that AI creates both opportunities and risks but that whichever challenge presented itself, “Russia would use it peacefully and would share it with the rest of the world.”
Russian strategists envision AI as a transformative tool for its military, particularly in nuclear strategy and C2 systems. AI could offer planners unprecedented options and reduce decision-making time, but it also poses risks, such as preemptive strikes and cyber intrusions. Russia, along with China, has already made significant advances in cyber capabilities, potentially enabling covert disruptions of Western systems. As AI continues to evolve, its integration into military operations will likely reshape the dynamics of global security and deterrence.
Military Applications of AI
Russia has been actively integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into its military systems and strategies, as evidenced by numerous articles in the journal Military Thought since 2021. These publications highlight AI's potential applications in areas such as electronic warfare, robotics, decision-making, logistics, drones, and command-and-control (C2) systems, as well as its implications for deterrence and strategic stability. Excerpts from this body of literature offer a glimpse into the Russian vision for AI in military operations, emphasizing both its advantages and challenges.
Discussions on AI in the 2021 time period focused on AI's role in enhancing information processing, target identification, and real-time decision-making. AI is expected to improve threat classification, optimize target distribution, and enable flexible responses to dynamic battlefield conditions. By 2022, Russia’s Ministry of Defense was actively working on integrating AI into automated C2 systems, with efforts aimed at developing natural language processing capabilities and creating advanced software and hardware systems.
By 2023, however, Russian military writings on AI began to expand to C2 systems, with an emphasis on AI’s ability to analyze combat operations, formalize command processes, and generate graphic combat documents. The role of AI for Russian military planners has been seen as crucial for modeling combat scenarios and forecasting threats, such as breaches or encirclements, requiring the development of robust monitoring systems at all command levels. Additionally, AI’s potential to accelerate decision-making and eliminate human bias was highlighted, though concerns were raised about its impact on deterrence and strategic stability.
Russian discussions also expanded to the analysis of deterrence in 2023 by underscoring both the positive and negative aspects of AI. On the positive side, AI is seen as enhancing decision-making speed and reducing uncertainty, potentially leading to a form of universal deterrence. However, it also introduces risks, such as escalation due to overconfidence in AI superiority, algorithmic malfunctions, and unintended interactions between AI systems. The difficulty of proving AI deterrence capabilities to adversaries further complicates strategic stability.
Russia envisions AI as a transformational tool for its military, particularly in nuclear strategy and C2 systems. AI could offer planners unprecedented options and reduce decision-making time, but it also poses risks, such as preemptive strikes and cyber intrusions. Russia, along with China, has already made significant advances in cyber capabilities, potentially enabling covert disruptions of Western systems. As AI continues to evolve, its integration into military operations will likely reshape the dynamics of global security and deterrence
The Role of C2 in the Future Use of AI
In the near future, AI’s primary targets will include systems for processing and integrating information and intelligence data, including acoustic (sound and voice), optical, and radio-electronic classifications of threats and target identification on the basis of this; systems for the C2 of robotics (micro and nano) and combinations of equipment and force groupings, including intelligence, recce-strike, and support groups; and systems for optimal target distribution, based on intelligence concerning the enemy’s capabilities. AI will make it possible to more efficiently identify and determine target destruction priorities, form plans for subsequent troop operations, and flexibly react to changing situations in real-time.[1]
The Strategic Brain of Russian AI Thinking: The 27th Central Research Institute
At present, Russia’s Ministry of Defense has focused on the introduction of AI technology, and no organization is more central to understanding Russian use of AI than the 27th Central Research Institute. Against the background of employing traditional “algorithmic” solutions for building automated command and control systems, the 27th Central Research Institute, in particular, has been working on introducing AI technologies into these systems. The successful implementation of requirements laid down in terms of technical tasks should make it possible to take an important step toward developing a software and hardware system capable in the near future of resolving tasks for processing natural language.[2]
The Role of AI in (C2) Combat Operations
Russian strategists believe the use of AI is advantageous in the resolution of command-and-control tasks when preparing combat operations.
First, an analysis of the course of executing tactical tasks shows that stages (periods) of combat operations can be identified in the content of the combat processes that substantively (decisively) affect the course of the execution of some tasks or another – fire strikes, troop strikes, actions of forces and assets in close combat, troop movement, et al. This task should be viewed as a future one for the development of a unified platform of an automated command-and-control system with AI technologies at a tactical level.
Second, AI can help develop adequate consideration and formalization of the command-and-control processes when preparing for and during combat (aimed at preempting the enemy in operations).
Third, AI can help with the development of graphic combat documents.
Fourth, when modeling combat operations, it is necessary to employ smart information systems, based on self-teaching. Thus, it is necessary to use AI technologies to find the best variants for a specific situation.
Finally, there is a need for effectively forecasting changes with respect to current conditions for the purpose of determining possible threats (creation of breaches, possibility of encirclement, threat of a breakthrough, threat of swamping, etc.). This requires the creation of a powerful monitoring system like AI at all levels of command and control.[3]
The Role of AI in Deterrence
Russian strategists believe there are positive and negative aspects of AI., noting the following:
The enumerated circumstances may result in a situation in which both sides ascertain that the opponent, using AI technologies, is able to predict his counterpart’s behavior… As a result, something like universal deterrence or absolute strategic stability, strengthened by AI technologies, will arise. However, these very circumstances may also result in a higher risk of unending escalation on the grounds of confidence in an illusory guarantee of superiority and appetite for risk. In addition, it is…very difficult to convince an opponent of the presence of a deterrence potential, whose main element is AI technologies in a computer program.[4]
Positive Dimensions of AI
Russian writings on the use of AI technologies can accelerate the process of shifting from data analysis to decision-making and increase substantially the overall tempo of actions during conflicts, crises, and wars on global, regional, and local levels. AI technologies can eliminate uncertainty in assessing the situation, ensuring the practically absolute impartiality of political and military decisions, and completely eliminating the influence of the human factor.
Negative Dimension in Using AI
Negatives of using AI: Deterrence and strategic instability failures come about when one nuclear power concludes it can determine the location and means of destruction required to destroy all nuclear weapons carriers of another power (which presently is practically impossible). Vulnerable states may be more inclined to use their nuclear potential, at the risk of losing it. The possibility exists of an unintentional increase in the number of minor algorithmic malfunctions, which will result in unforeseen and completely AI-induced deterrence failures. As attackers and defenders begin to rely on AI to control behavior, the systems themselves will begin to interact with each other in unique (and unforeseen) ways. An assessment of superiority of one of the sides about AI may be incorrectly interpreted by the other side, which will result in an incorrect calculation of coercive actions. While it is very difficult for the defender to precisely and clearly prove the presence of AI potential to the enemy, it also makes no sense to share with the enemy an especially viable algorithm as proof.[5]
The Nuclear Correlation of Forces in AI
Russian military strategists believe that the contemporary nuclear correlation of forces and means (COFM) will be strongly influenced by AI and that there are many uses in store for AI in the realm of Russian planning. AI offers COFM planners various options (strategies, order of destruction, additional assets, etc.) never considered by humans as it takes into consideration various issues. A major change will be the time factor, as systems may be preempted and destroyed before one side realizes what has happened, if radars, satellites, and communication capabilities are put out of service. Russia and China have made inroads into Western cyber systems and platforms, many of which the West may not even know exist. Such invisible intrusions may preempt systems before attacks are recognized and adjustments can materialize.
Conclusion
Russia envisions AI as a transformative tool for its military, particularly in nuclear strategy and C2 systems and other areas, and plays a critical role in reshaping its nuclear correlation of forces and means (COFM), offering planners innovative strategies and solutions previously unimaginable to humans. As a transformational tool, however, AI also introduces new risks. Advanced AI systems may preemptively disable radars, satellites, and communication networks before adversaries can react. Moreover, Russia and China’s cyber intrusions into Western systems underscore the growing importance of AI in cyber warfare. These covert capabilities could potentially neutralize key systems, leaving adversaries vulnerable to swift and decisive actions.
In summary, Russian writings on AI use indicate that it represents a double-edged sword in modern military strategy. While offering unprecedented advantages in decision-making and operational efficiency, it also introduces complexities and vulnerabilities that could destabilize traditional deterrence mechanisms. Russian advancements signal a profound shift in the nature of warfare, necessitating careful consideration of AI's strategic implications. How and when the Russian military intends to use the capabilities they develop in these areas over the next ten years is worthy of any nation’s attention.
About the Authors
Timothy Thomas
Timothy Thomas is a Senior Fellow at The Saratoga Foundation and a long time expert on the Russian military. Previously he worked for 27 years at the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Mr. Thomas has conducted extensive research and publishing on military affairs in both Russia and China. He served as the assistant editor of the journal European Security, and as an adjunct professor at the U.S. Army's Eurasian Institute; and as an adjunct lecturer at the USAF Special Operations School. He has written three books on the Russian military and published over 23 articles on the Russian military in the past two years and two on China for MITRE.
Glen Howard
Glen Howard is President and Chairman of The Saratoga Foundation. Mr. Howard has three decades of experience writing about security and military issues in Eurasia, Russia, and the Caspian region.
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[1] V. M. Burenok “Artificial Intelligence in Future Military Confrontation,” Voyennaya mysl’ (Military Thought), No. 4 2021, pp. 106-112. The author would like to thank Dr. Harold Orenstein for his translation of this article. There was no Russian version of the article available to this author.
[2] A. A. Protasov, A. V. Shirmanov, and S. I. Radomanov, “Current Tasks for the Automation of Command-and-Control Organs on the Basis of Artificial Intelligence,” Voyennaya mysl’ (Military Thought), No. 4 2022, pp. 79-87. The author
[3] B. B. Ishechkin, V. B. Ishechkin, and S. V. Yevtikhov, “Prospects for the Employment of Artificial Intelligence in Command and Control,” Voyennaya mysl’ (Military Thought), No. 8 2023, pp. 79-84. The author would like to thank Dr. Harold Orenstein for his translation of this article. There was no Russian version of the article available to this author.
[4] A. A. Protasov and A. V. Shirmanov, “Technological Developments in the Field of Artificial Intelligence and Deterrence of a Potential Aggressor,” Voyennaya Mysl’ (Military Thought), No. 11 2023, pp. 68-82. The author would like to thank Dr. Harold Orenstein for his translation of this article. There was no Russian version of the article available to this author
[5] Ibid.