New Report! Escalation Management à la Russe: The Kremlin’s Threat Assessment, Forecasting, and Conflict Control Tools
by Roger McDermott
Dear Friend of Saratoga,
We are pleased to present a new report by Roger McDermott, Senior Fellow at The Saratoga Foundation, developed as part of a project commissioned by the U.S. European Command’s Russia Strategy Initiative. The report seeks to enhance public understanding of Russian national security decision-making and policy processes. The Saratoga Foundation received no financial support for this effort.
As modern warfare evolves and geopolitical competition intensifies, the need for effective escalation monitoring and decision-support systems has become increasingly critical in understanding Russian approaches to national security decision-making. Russia’s Strategic and National Threat Assessment framework (VPO) is a central component of its national defense infrastructure, designed to support strategic decision-making through structured evaluation, predictive modeling, and centralized coordination. Closely integrated with the National Defense Management Center (NTsUO), the VPO functions as both a theoretical construct and a practical mechanism for Russia’s ability to manage strategic threats and crisis escalation.
This report analyzes the VPO across three primary themes: its functionality and integration as a decision-support tool, its role in managing wartime escalation through structured information flows, and the guiding principles of command and coordination within Russia’s security framework. The study offers insights into how the Russian state leverages centralized systems, mathematical tools, and procedural discipline to support national objectives.
A key component of this system is deloproizvodstvo (office/record management), the structured handling of documentation and information flows. This process ensures continuity and discipline in decision-making, particularly under crisis conditions. When integrated with predictive models and operational analytics, deloproizvodstvo supports timely and consistent strategic responses.
The report also emphasizes the integration of the VPO with the NTsUO, which serves as Russia’s central coordination hub for military, diplomatic, and informational operations. This integration enables the Kremlin to monitor progress toward strategic objectives, evaluate Lines of Effort (LOEs), and adapt operational plans. The effectiveness of this centralized system is underpinned by principles such as edinonachaliye (unity of command) and vzaimodeistvie (inter-agency interaction), which facilitate coordination across ministries and domains.
In addition to current practices, the report considers ongoing modernization of the VPO framework. Enhancements in data integration, scenario forecasting, and analytics reflect Russia’s strategic intent to adapt its defense systems to emerging technologies and complex threats. Understanding these developments is essential for anticipating future Russian behavior.
The study is anchored in three research questions:
1. How does the Kremlin assess progress toward its strategic objectives?
2. How does it determine which LOEs to prioritize?
3. How are multiple LOEs coordinated across government institutions during complex operations?
By addressing these questions, the report provides valuable insights for defense analysts and policymakers. It identifies strengths and vulnerabilities within Russia’s centralized decision-making system and explores how adversaries might disrupt or exploit coordination bottlenecks, particularly during high-pressure scenarios.
This analysis contributes to broader strategic thinking by offering applicable lessons in decision-support system design, escalation management, and inter-agency coordination. It informs efforts to enhance national defense strategies in the face of similarly complex threat environments.
To obtain a copy of the report please click here!
Enjoy!
Glen E. Howard
President and Chairman
The Saratoga Foundation
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