Unlocking the Dnipro: The Struggle for the Kinburn Spit

By Glen E. Howard

Map Source: Institute for the Study of War & AEI Critical Threats Project cited by The Economist

Background

One of the key areas of discussion that emerged during the April 2025 Paris talks between the United States and Ukraine, as part of the peace proposal offered by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, was the return of the Kinburn Spit to Ukrainian control. Those demands were repeated earlier this week by the US special envoy in an interview with Breitbart news on May 13 in anticipation of a meeting in Istanbul on Thursday May 15 between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky hosted by Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan, which may also include US President Donald J. Trump.

Discussing the peace plan, Witkoff said: “I think the major issues here are the regions, the nuclear plant, it’s how the Ukrainians are able to use the Dnieper River and get out to the ocean.” Witkoff went on to ask: “How Ukraine is going to access the water and get their goods to the marketplace?” What the US envoy is referring to is the struggle for control of the Kinburn Spit. The proposed plan, backed by the Trump Administration, seeks to restore Ukrainian control over the Kinburn Spit, ensure secure passage across the Dnipro River, and reclaim approximately 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) of occupied areas in Kharkiv Oblast, currently held by Russian forces.

Sandbar of Strategy: The Kinburn Spit

The Kinburn Spit reflects a unique aspect of geography, where a spit is a long, narrow sandy peninsula that projects out into the sea but is connected to a larger coastal landform. In the case of the Kinburn Spit, it is strategically important because it separates the Dnipro-Bug estuary in the northern corner of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and guards the entrance to the Dnipro River — the fourth longest river in Europe after the Volga, Danube, and Ural. The Dnipro is Ukraine’s economic and commercial lifeline and similar to what the Mississippi River is to the US: a central artery for transportation, commerce, and strategic infrastructure.

In strictly naval terms, the Kinburn Spit is what is often referred to as a maritime chokepoint, a strategically important passage of water through which large volumes of international maritime traffic must pass. Whoever controls the Kinburn Spit in essence determines what ships and naval traffic can enter the 1,367-mile Dnipro River that is Ukraine’s biggest internal waterway and its chief commercial outlet to the Black Sea.

The fact that the American negotiator Steven Witkoff was discussing the return of the Kinburn Spit to Ukrainian control as part of the Paris peace proposals signifies its outsized strategic importance to the Ukrainian government. Kinburn’s fate will likely shape the course of future peace talks and certainly shape the war in southern Ukraine for years to come. To Western observers, its significance might seem marginal, but for Ukraine, however, the Kinburn Spit is the linchpin to its maritime security.

Historically, the Kinburn Spit has been of great tactical importance in Black Sea warfare due to its strategic location at the far northern end of the Crimean Peninsula. It always played an outsized role in regional security, dividing the Dnipro-Bug estuary from the open waters of the Northwest Black Sea and beyond to the Mediterranean. To the west lies the port city of Ochakiv, while Mykolaiv and Kherson lie upstream. Any maritime movement between these two ports and the sea must pass within Russian artillery range of the Spit, and any vessel seeking passage to or from the port cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson must transit the waters between Kinburn and Ochakiv, making the Kinburn Spit a natural chokepoint. This geography has ensured the spit’s strategic importance for centuries, and in the current war, it has become a magnet for military operations, blockades, and Ukrainian sea-borne commando raids.

This alone makes it invaluable, but the history that clings to its dunes adds further weight. In 1787, during the Russo-Turkish War, it was here that the legendary Russian General Alexander Suvorov defended against an Ottoman landing force seeking to outflank Russian forces attacking the Turkish fortress at Ochakiv. So pivotal was this defense that the Russian Empire later erected a monument on the Spit in Suvorov’s honor. Memories of that battle have lingered into the modern age—until Ukraine, in a daring 2023 raid on the Russian-occupied Spit, destroyed parts of the Suvorov monument due to its symbology of Russia’s imperial past and Moscow’s continued occupation of Crimea.

                    John Paul Jones - Founder of the US Navy

Yet the story of Kinburn does not belong solely to Russia’s canon of martial glory. During the late 18th century, a far more unexpected actor arrived in Crimean waters: John Paul Jones, the famed American naval commander and "Father of the U.S. Navy." In 1788, under the employment of Catherine the Great, Jones commanded a small Russian fleet in the Dnipro-Bug estuary and directed Russian forces under the command of Suvorov to deploy artillery on the Kinburn Spit, recognizing its strategic importance in preventing Ottoman naval forces from reinforcing their beleaguered compatriots defending the Ochakiv fortress. The successful relocation of Russian artillery, upon the advice of John Paul Jones, helped Russian forces repel Ottoman forces during the operations that included battles around Kinburn, adding a distinctly American imprint on the history of Black Sea military operations.

Ukrainian Ports at Risk: Mykolaiv and Kherson

The Kinburn Spit might best be described as a dagger pointed at Ukraine’s southern underbelly. Directly across the water from the Kinburn Spit is the Ukrainian town of Ochakiv, which guards the maritime entrance to the Dnieper and Southern Bug rivers—and safeguards the approaches to the two current Ukrainian ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson which are both vital to Ukraine’s food export economy— and together serve as critical arteries in the global grain supply.

Located roughly 60 kilometers from the front line, Mykolaiv was once a hub for Ukraine’s sunflower oil, wheat, and corn exports before the 2022 Russian invasion. Known as a major maritime and shipbuilding center since Soviet times, Mykolaiv also has a vast shipyard capable of producing large warships and produced the first ever Soviet aircraft carrier the Kuznetsov, and thrives on port-related industries. According to Oleksandr Kubrakov, a former Ukrainian infrastructure minister, over 50% of the city’s revenue came from port-linked enterprises. More than 10,000 people were directly or indirectly employed in and around the harbor. Yet since February 2022, Mykolaiv has languished under the Russian blockade created by its command of the Kinburn spit. Since the day before Russia’s full-scale invasion, as many as 28 foreign-owned vessels have been stranded there for the past three years.

Another key port on the Dnipro is Kherson, which shares a similar fate as Mykolaiv. Though briefly liberated by Ukrainian forces on November 11, 2022, commercial traffic has never fully recovered or been restored. It has left Ukraine in control of the west bank of the Dnipro while the eastern bank remains under Russian rule. Therefore, Russian control of the Kinburn Spit allows Russian forces to threaten any vessel attempting to access these ports. Ukrainian forces have responded by heavily mining the estuary and deploying barges to physically block its passage. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023 further complicated matters, flushing thousands of land mines into the northern Black Sea.

Due to the blockade of Mykolaiv and Kherson, Ukraine has been forced to rely upon Odesa and its neighboring smaller ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdenny as its single most important exit points for exporting Ukrainian grain. After the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2023, maritime trade has become an even riskier operation. Ukraine has managed to reopen shipping lanes from Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny by relying on a patchwork of naval ingenuity, due largely to its naval campaign using its fleet of Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) and Western-supplied missile systems, which ended Russian maritime dominance in the Northwestern part of the Black Sea.

Since early 2025, Odessa-region ports have functioned at around 60% capacity, down from 90% during the 2023 harvest season. Despite the war, Ukraine managed to export $24.5 billion in agricultural goods last year, accounting for 59% of its total exports. In the summer of 2023, after Russia withdrew from the "grain deal," the Ukrainian Navy facilitated the passage of nearly 10,000 ships. 100 million tons of various cargoes, including agricultural products, were exported from Ukrainian ports, which is close to the levels seen before Russia's full-scale invasion. To safeguard their security, foreign-registered merchant ships avoid Russian strikes by hugging the Black Sea coastline in their effort to reach the Bosporus, running a daily gauntlet of mines, drones, and Russian Kalibr missile attacks.

Mykolaiv, however, has not shared in this resurgence. Russia, recognizing its importance, has reportedly floated proposals to reopen the port in exchange for geopolitical concessions—an offer Ukraine has rejected. As Vitalii Kim, head of Mykolaiv’s regional military administration, stated, “Russia wants to trade the reopening of Mykolaiv for something bigger,” but Ukraine’s security priorities are “higher than our interests.” Kim noted that: “due to non-operational ports in the city of Mykolaiv, businesses are building new supply chains through other oblasts – the city of Izmail (Odesa Oblast) and so on – while we are losing markets. This is not just about losing profit but losing businesses altogether, as it will be difficult for them to revert back, given the additional costs involved.”

The Role of Ochakiv

Across the estuary from Kinburn lies the battered town of Ochakiv. 40 miles east of Odesa and 2 miles northwest of the sandbar. With a pre-war population of 15,000, Ochakiv once stood as a symbol of Western cooperation with Ukraine. In 2017, American forces began constructing a naval operations center there to accommodate US warships. The American-funded effort included reinforcing and upgrading existing piers and adding a new floating dock, security fencing around the bases, ship repair facilities, and a pair of brand-new Maritime Operations Centers from which Ukrainian and NATO forces could direct exercises and coordinate activities. By 2021, the United Kingdom had pledged assistance to Ukraine to help it turn Ochakiv into a full-scale naval base.

Russian President Putin highlighted the strategic importance of Ochakiv in his famous pre-Ukraine invasion speech on February 21, 2022, stating that the development of military infrastructure in Ukraine, including facilities in Ochakiv, posed a direct threat to Russian security. During that speech, Putin claimed that NATO’s presence in Ochakiv posed a threat to the Russian fleet. Putin noted that:

“The United States and NATO have started to shamelessly turn Ukraine into a theater of military operations. They have been pumping the country with weapons and training Ukrainian troops. Since 2014, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been integrated into NATO structures. This includes the deployment of NATO training centers and bases, such as in Ochakiv.”

Today, Ochakiv suffers constant shelling from Russian forces on the Kinburn Spit. Half its population has fled. Ukrainian troops hold an island in the middle of the estuary, caught in an eerie standoff just 2 miles from the Spit.

Ukrainian Efforts to Retake Kinburn

Since the 2022 re-invasion, Russian forces have militarized the Kinburn Spit using it to repeatedly launch missile and artillery attacks on Ukraine’s southern Black Sea coastline, attacking its port facilities in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Ochakiv, and Kherson. Ukraine has launched several attempts to conduct limited raids and even retake the Kinburn Spit in the past several years to degrade Russian military capabilities on the 6.2-mile-long sandbar.

The first raid was launched in 2023, while the biggest attack occurred on August 9, 2024, when Ukrainian Special Operations Forces conducted a significant seaborne raid on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit. The operation resulted in the destruction of six Russian armored vehicles and the elimination of approximately 30 Russian soldiers. Ukrainian efforts focused on disrupting Russian logistical and operational capabilities on the Kinburn Spit and also destroyed Russian ammunition and fuel storage facilities on the spit to disrupt Russian military operations.

Ukrainian forces targeted key Russian fortifications, including positions at the Kinburn Fortress, Marine Station, and the Monument to Suvorov. Notably, Ukrainian troops raised their flag near the Monument to Suvorov, symbolizing their effort to deny Russian control over the chokepoint.

Monument to Russian General Alexander Suvorov on Kinburn Spit

Despite these occasional seaborne raids, Ukraine has been unable to militarily retake the Kinburn Spit. The area is characterized by difficult terrain, including marshlands and narrow landforms, which complicate large-scale military operations. Additionally, Russian forces have established fortified positions and continue to use the Spit for launching attacks, making sustained Ukrainian control difficult.

Outlook

Regardless of the outcome of US talks with Russia, the Kinburn Spit has emerged as one of two key negotiating points in American-sponsored talks with Russia that Ukrainian officials deem to be of critical importance. The other pressing issue is control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and its strategic significance in providing electricity to Ukrainian cities. US negotiator Witkoff referred to the NPP as a “little bit of a crown jewel” in his recent interview, because of the enormous amount of electricity it can produce,” and is currently a “big part of the US negotiations with Russia.”

Due to the strategic importance of unlocking the Dnipro to commercial traffic, the Kinburn Spit will remain a highly coveted piece of territory if the issue goes unresolved. It will be a high priority in Ukrainian naval and military strategy as Kyiv continues its efforts to regain control over the strategic sandbar. Whoever controls Kinburn in essence controls the freedom of navigation to Ukraine’s equivalent of the Mississippi River. Without access to Mykolaev and Kherson, Ukraine cannot fully utilize its vast grain potential — turning one of the world’s leading breadbaskets into a storehouse with few doors outside of the port of Odesa.

In this context, the Kinburn Spit remains a critical chess piece on the Eurasian chessboard and a linchpin to a much larger strategy of economic survival, deterrence, and sovereignty for Ukraine that is now occupying the attention of the most senior US-level policymakers. Left unresolved, it will remain a key flashpoint in the grinding war between Ukraine and Russia that continues to shape the struggle for the Black Sea.

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