Watch Now! Assessing Ukraine's Maritime & Coastal Defense Capabilities

On February 26, Saratoga President Glen Howard participated in a panel organized by Walter Zaryckyi the Executive Director for the Center for US-Ukrainian Relations and its sponsors (The American Foreign Policy Council) as part of a day long conference: US-Ukraine Security Dialogue XVII: taking Measures of Ukraine’s Defense Capabilities & Needs After a Third Year of War. The morning panel examined Black Sea Security: Assessing Ukraine’s Maritime & Coastal Defense Capabilities chaired by Matthew G. Boyse, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute. Milan Vego, Professor of Operational Art at the US Naval War College.

During his presentation Saratoga President Glen Howard examined what a post-Ukraine ceasefire agreement might mean for Black Sea security should Article 19 of the Montreux Convention be suspended. Currently, under Article 19 Russian warships operating outside the Black Sea are not allowed to return to the Black Sea due to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Article 19 states:

“That if Turkey is not at war in a time of a war situation, warships of any warring state will be prohibited from passing through the straits.”

Mr. Howard noted that should Article 19 be suspended by the government of Turkiye then Russia would be free to reinforce its existing naval assets currently operating in the Black Sea which would lead to a surge in Russian naval warships from other naval bases in the Baltic and Northern Fleet which would bolster their naval capabilities in Sevastopol and Novorosissk.

Given that Ukraine retains only 18 percent of its pre-2022 maritime littoral in the Black Sea due to the war and that as much as 30 percent of Ukraine’s GDP comes from Odesa, Moscow is well suited to renew its boa constrictor strategy of tightening the maritime noose around Ukraine. That said, once Article 19 is suspended warships from non-littoral countries outside the Black Sea , e.g., the Royal Navy and US Navy, can return to the Black Sea to protect Ukraine but are limited to 21 days of operating in the Black Sea at a specific time.